Australia’s coal-fired power stations are outdated, unreliable and must be replaced soon, with over sixty per cent of generating capacity more than 40 years old and prone to breaking down when we need power the most. New research from Baringa (commissioned by the Climate Council), Lights Out: Ageing Coal and Summer Blackouts, highlights the urgent need for more renewable power backed by storage like big batteries and hydro to replace these ageing coal clunkers and secure Australia’s energy future.
Climate Councillor and energy expert Greg Bourne said: “Clapped-out coal clunkers are making it harder to keep the lights on. A coal generator’s availability to produce electricity begins to decline from 40 years old, decreasing from 81% to 65% on average.
“More than half of our coal fleet was built in the 1980s. As they age, their reliability drops dramatically. In states like New South Wales and Victoria, where coal stations are the oldest, the risks are particularly acute.
“Coal’s worsening reliability is particularly concerning during peak summer periods, when Australians rely on power to keep cool. Recent summers have exposed coal’s fragility, with unplanned outages pushing our energy system to the brink and driving severe price spikes that hit household budgets hard.
“Four of the most severe price spikes in the past seven years were driven by unplanned coal outages.”
Amanda McKenzie, CEO of the Climate Council, said Australia’s reliance on coal is delaying progress on reliable, clean power: “Coal-fired power stations are Australia’s biggest energy liability—polluting, unreliable, and fueling unnatural disasters like bushfires and heatwaves. The writing is on the wall for coal: it’s on the way out, and we need to replace it fast with renewables backed by storage—for our kids’ futures and a safer climate.”
In contrast, batteries and pumped hydro are already stepping in to strengthen our grid. The analysis, conducted by Baringa, reveals that battery capacity has doubled in the past three years and is expected to grow seven-fold by 2030.
“Batteries have already proven their worth, stepping in to keep the lights on during critical moments. During NSW’s November 2024 heatwaves, when coal outages left the grid exposed, batteries delivered up to 200 MW of electricity—enough to power over 150,000 reverse cycle air conditioners,” said Ms McKenzie.
Peter Sherry, Partner at Baringa Partners, said: “Our analysis finds that coal generators in the National Electricity Market become less available with age, particularly beyond 40 years of age. The majority of our coal capacity is already over 40 years, and as these generators continue to age we would expect their availability to decline. Given asset age, as well as continued declines in technology costs, our projections indicate that most of Australia’s coal generation will be replaced by renewables and firm technologies like storage within the next ten years.”
Key Insights
- The majority (more than 60%) of coal capacity in our main grid is older than 40 years, with some generators operating since the 1970s.
- A coal generator’s availability to produce electricity begins to decline from 40 years old, decreasing from 81% to 65% on average.
- Over the past four years, coal power has been significantly less available during periods of increased power outage risk than under typical conditions.
- During periods with the greatest power outage risk (LOR 3), coal availability has been 10-20% lower than typical periods.
- The majority of recent power outage risk conditions have occurred in NSW & QLD, the states most dependent on coal generators.
- Coal outages have played the largest role in power outage risk conditions in NSW & VIC, the states with the oldest coal generators.
- During summer (November to March), hot weather and unplanned coal outages are key drivers of power outage risk.
- Four of the most severe price spikes in the past seven years were driven by unplanned coal outages.
- Batteries have already taken over from coal as the primary source of ‘frequency services’: a rapid injection or reduction of electricity into the grid to balance supply and demand.
- During the November 2024 NSW heatwaves, one third of the state’s coal power units were offline for repairs – prompting AEMO to issue blackout warnings and put big batteries on standby.
For interviews please contact the Climate Council media team on media@climatecouncil.org.au or call 0485 863 063.
The Climate Council is Australia’s leading community-funded climate change communications organisation. We provide authoritative, expert and evidence-based advice on climate change to journalists, policymakers, and the wider Australian community.
For further information, go to: climatecouncil.org.au
Or follow us on social media: facebook.com/climatecouncil and twitter.com/climatecouncil
