In response to the approaching Tropical Cyclone Alfred, ‘Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie said: “Communities in northern NSW and SE Queensland experiencing back to back disasters are asking why? It is critical that Australians know that Cyclone Alfred, like so many other extremes across Australia, is more intense and destructive due to climate change. This is essential to assisting communities and emergency services to prepare for disasters.”
“The Climate Council has released the following statement to clarify how climate change has made this cyclone more damaging than it would otherwise be.”
Climate Council Statement on Tropical Cyclone Alfred
Communities in Queensland and northern NSW are bracing for the destructive force of the wind, rain and storm surges from Cyclone Alfred. It is currently moving towards the southeast Queensland coast and is expected to remain as a category 2 tropical cyclone until it crosses the coast.
It is critical that we understand that such disasters are no longer simply “natural”. Climate pollution has made Cyclone Alfred more intense and destructive.
It is vital that communities, emergency services, media and governments understand this to ensure that we can both tackle the root cause – pollution from coal, oil and gas – as well as prepare for more destructive disasters into the future.
There are several ways that climate change is influencing Tropical Cyclone Alfred:
- Climate change has made our oceans hotter which is driving more ferocious and destructive cyclones.
- Hotter conditions provide more fuel for extreme winds, intense rainfall and larger storms. Around the world maximum wind speeds are getting stronger for cyclones.
- The oceans on the east coast have been exceptionally hot. Sea surface temperatures were the warmest on record for each month between October 2024 and February 2025.
- The risk of flooding damage from Tropical Cyclone Alfred is greater due to climate change.
- One of the deadliest aspects of a cyclone is when a storm pushes ocean water onto land, called a storm surge. Sea levels around Australia have risen 20cm due to climate change and so a storm surge now rides on much higher seas. The storm surge during Cyclone Alfred will be higher, and go further onto land, as a consequence of climate change.
- A hotter world is a wetter world due to more evaporation. Climate change is driving more extreme rainfall, including during cyclones. Some areas in northern NSW and southeast Queensland could experience 40% of Brisbane’s annual rainfall in 24 hours.
- There is evidence that tropical cyclones are moving more slowly across the ocean and land. That means they can linger longer over communities and dump immense amounts of rain over a small area, while also sustaining damaging windspeeds for a longer period.
- Heavy rainfall and a storm surge together exacerbates flooding, which is a major risk right now for communities in southeast Queensland and northern NSW.
- Cyclone Alfred is tracking further south than cyclones usually do in Australia.
- Tropical cyclones normally occur in the tropics. Southern communities have rarely had to face or prepare for these sorts of events. Many homes and infrastructure in southeast Queensland are not built to withstand cyclones and the destructive winds they bring.
- Scientists are concerned that, as our oceans heat up, cyclones may track further south on the east coast.
- Climate pollution is driving more ferocious and costly extreme weather events. While Australia is now cutting pollution, but it is not fast or far enough. We must slash climate pollution to prevent the problem from getting worse, as well as prepare communities and our infrastructure for the disasters we cannot avoid.
See this fact sheet Cyclone Fact Sheet for more information.
