Australia’s leading science agency, CSIRO, has released its draft GenCost 2024-25 report which provides an economic analysis of the cost of building various energy projects in Australia. So what does it tell us?
In a nutshell: CSIRO has found that building nuclear reactors in Australia would cost at least twice as much as renewable power and that it would take at least 15 years to build nuclear here.
This latest analysis is just another reason why nuclear reactors are too risky, too expensive and too little, too late for Australia. They won’t lower power bills or fill the urgent energy gap being left by coal exiting.
Let’s take a look at the key facts from the CSIRO report in a bit more detail:
Nuclear would cost at least twice as much as renewables
CSIRO has found the cost of electricity generated from nuclear reactors by 2040 would be about $145-$238 per MWh, compared to $22-$53 for solar, and $45-$78 for wind. So that’s at least twice as much for nuclear, or up to 10 times as much when comparing with the lowest-cost solar.
Projected price per megawatt hour for electricity generation: CSIRO Gencost 2024-2025
As you can see from the graph above, CSIRO Gencost 2024-2025 draft report shows that if you combine solar and wind costs, nuclear power is twice as expensive now and in the future.
But this is only the start of the story: CSIRO say the first few nuclear stations built in Australia would likely cost significantly more: up to twice as much. This is because we have no workforce or experience with building nuclear energy, increasing the risks of cost blowouts and delays that commonly plague such projects.
Nuclear energy is still at least twice as expensive as renewable power, even after accounting for its longer operating life. Since renewables are cheap and getting cheaper, they can be built and rebuilt for less than the cost of building nuclear reactors once and then maintaining them over the same period.
This chart below compiled by ABC News with data from Oxford Global Projects shows nuclear projects are hard to beat in cost blow-outs.
Renewable power + storage is our lowest cost option, and getting cheaper
After adding the costs of storage, peaking (from gas) and transmission to the cost of building renewable projects, building a grid powered by 90% wind and solar is still at least one-third cheaper than nuclear, even before the costs of transmission and waste management needed for nuclear.
Wind, solar and storage are expected to continue becoming cheaper over time, but large-scale nuclear reactors stay high over time, with very little change.
In the last year alone, the cost of battery storage has decreased by about 20%, as the world gets behind renewables and storage. The CSIRO says the cost of large-scale solar has also dropped by 8% for the past two years, despite inflation pushing up costs across the economy.
Nuclear reactors will take at least 15 years to construct. Plus everything else.
CSIRO has taken a close look at international nuclear projects in comparable countries like the United States and Finland, and concluded that building nuclear in Australia would take at least 15 years, from the first pour of concrete to completion.
No democratic country, with laws similar to Australia – that protect workers, communities or the environment – have built nuclear reactors quicker than this. This timeline doesn’t include the many years of work that must occur before construction begins: to overturn legislated bans, set up a regulatory framework, enter into commercial agreements, and then complete all the preparatory works (like preparing the site).
On this basis, building a single nuclear reactor would take at least 20 years, and very likely longer. With our ageing coal-fired power stations expected to close by 2038, we can’t afford to wait until 2045 for new energy supply.
Read our Submission to the inquiry into nuclear power generation in Australia here
